11 nominations: 12 Years A Slave
9 nominations: Gravity
8 nominations: American Hustle; Captain Phillips
5 nominations: Nebraska; Rush
4 nominations: Her; Dallas Buyers Club; Saving Mr. Banks; Frozen; The Great Gatsby
3 nominations: Inside Llewyn Davis; The Wolf of Wall Street; All is Lost; Blue Jasmine
Summary
Based on my predictions, there will be an intensive race among 12 Years A Slave, Gravity, American Hustle and Captain Phillips. It is most likely that Gravity will ultimately win the technical categories. However, a gap exists for films of 6 or 7 nominations. Since I would expect small variations in my predictions, the possible films that could hopefully fill the gap are Nebraska and Her, so that the 86th race is more even.
Any similarities with the 85th Academy Awards? Yes, there are!
At this stage, I cannot put a definite bet on the Best Picture winner, however my call would be American Hustle and the following discussed similarities and observations would verify my decision.
85th and 86th Academy Awards Comparison for Best Picture contenders
Lincoln and 12 Years A Slave:
- Historical films
- Themes surround anti-slavery and freedom
- Lincoln had the most nominations (12 in total; won 2); 12 Years A Slave would likely to receive most nominations (11 noms based on my count)
Analysis:
If 12 Years A Slave were to be the Lincoln from last year, it would not possibly win. However, one can argue the big dogs like Titanic and Lord of the Rings: Return of the King which both won 11 Oscars had the most nominations as well for their respective years. Yet, I doubt on 12 Years A Slave to generate such 'clean sweep' effect when my counts can clearly tell how competitive the race will be.
Life of Pi and Gravity:
- Visually spectacular films, but ironically everything we see in picture is just created by computer technologies and scientific inventions
- Nominations mainly gather on the technical categories
- Directors are both foreign (Ang Lee, Taiwan; Alfonso Cuaron, Mexico) and highly respected in the industry
Analysis:
Speaking of these sci-fi films, Life of Pi was on the survival of a boy and a tiger in the sea, whereas Gravity is similar, only huge difference is that it is an astronaut in space. For a definite bet, Gravity would win Best Cinematography and Best Visual Effects, just like Life of Pi last year, Hugo (2011) and Inception (2010), which showed the tendency for these two categories to be won hand in hand.
Ang Lee, well known for Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon, won Best Director twice for Brokeback Mountain and Life of Pi. However, one thing to note about Ang Lee is that his both wins did not earn the films a Best Picture title. From this observation, I strongly think Gravity does not have the capacity to win Best Picture, or else Life of Pi would have. Yet, Alfonso Cuaron, known for Children of Men, has been the lead in the Best Director race as predicted by critics and experts.
Argo and American Hustle:
- Coincidentally, both titles start with an 'A'
- Both set in a background of decades close to one another: 1970s to 80s
- Possess the American spirit and culture
- Solid acting ensemble (Argo: Affleck, Cranston, Arkin and Goodman; American Hustle: Bale, Adams, Cooper, Lawrence and Renner)
Analysis:
This time last year, Lincoln was still over-buzzing Argo until the Oscar nominations were announced in January, 2013. From that point onwards, Argo dominated the race for Best Picture with most filmmakers in Hollywood or in the entertainment business paying sympathy to Ben Affleck's snub for a Best Director nomination. This really resembles the current race of American Hustle with 12 Years A Slave. Therefore, I believe American Hustle possesses the highest probability in winning Best Picture for 86th, provided that 12 Years A Slave is like Lincoln, and Gravity resembling with Life of Pi in Directing, Cinematography and Visual Effects.
Moreover, Jennifer Lawrence has the 'babe factor' to strengthen the race of American Hustle, unlike Alan Arkin in Argo which I feel like his nomination was more like a respect for him. Respectively, she will be and he was nominated in the supporting role categories (Jennifer Lawrence for Best Supporting Actress; Alan Arkin for Best Supporting Actor last year).
My views are solely for reference, but I would very much expect them to be correct. Hope you liked it!
