87th Academy Awards Final Predictions

BEST PICTURE

Will Win: Birdman (won PGA and DGA which are reliable precursors)

Should Win: Boyhood (won BAFTA and Golden Globes)

Could Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

filmAEO pick: Boyhood

BEST DIRECTOR

Will Win: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman (won DGA, which is a strong precursor)

Should Win: Richard Linklater, Boyhood (won BAFTA and Golden Globes)

Could Win: Richard Linklater, Boyhood

filmAEO pick: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman

BEST ACTOR

Will Win: Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything (won BAFTA, SAG and Golden Globes)

Should Win: Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

Could Win: Michael Keaton, Birdman (won Golden Globes)

filmAEO pick: Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

BEST ACTRESS

Will Win: Julianne Moore, Still Alice (won every important awards, so unbeatable)

Should Win: Julianne Moore, Still Alice

Could Win: N/A

filmAEO pick: Julianne Moore, Still Alice

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Will Win: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash (won every important awards, so unbeatable)

Should Win: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

Could Win: N/A

filmAEO pick: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Will Win: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood (won every important awards, so unbeatable)

Should Win: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood

Could Win: N/A

filmAEO pick: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Will Win: The Imitation Game

Should Win: The Imitation Game

Could Win: Whiplash

filmAEO pick: The Imitation Game (Voters would have been confused about the originality of Whiplash that should have been categorised as Original Screenplay.)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Will Win: Birdman (Best Picture normally comes with a screenplay award)

Should Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel (The plot and characters are well loved.)

Could Win: Birdman

filmAEO pick: The Grand Budapest Hotel (Love factor + Wes Anderson should get an Oscar)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Will Win: How To Train Your Dragon 2

Should Win: How To Train Your Dragon 2

Could Win: Big Hero 6

filmAEO pick: How To Train Your Dragon 2

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Will Win: Ida (Poland)

Should Win: Leviathan (Russia)

Could Win: Wild Tales (Argentina)

filmAEO pick: Ida (Poland)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Will Win: Birdman (Its cinematographer, Emmanuel Lubezki, has won everything.)

Should Win: Birdman

Could Win: Ida (Have to admit that the film's shots and play with contrast in light are distinctive.)

filmAEO pick: Birdman (No artificial lighting, simply a play with stage lighting and impressive one-take.)

BEST FILM EDITING

Will Win: Boyhood 

Should Win: Boyhood

Could Win: Whiplash or American Sniper

filmAEO pick: Boyhood (Best Picture normally comes with a Best Editing win.)

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Should Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Could Win: Mr. Turner

filmAEO pick: The Grand Budapest Hotel (A cohort of technical wins for the film.)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Should Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Could Win: Mr. Turner

filmAEO pick: The Grand Budapest Hotel (A cohort of technical wins for the film.)

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Should Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Could Win: Guardians of the Galaxy

filmAEO pick: The Grand Budapest Hotel (A cohort of technical wins for the film.)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Should Win: The Theory of Everything

Could Win: The Theory of Everything

filmAEO pick: The Grand Budapest Hotel (A cohort of technical wins for the film + Final win for Alexandre Desplat)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Will Win: "Glory" (Selma)

Should Win: "Lost Stars" (Begin Again)

Could Win: "Everything is Awesome" (The LEGO Movie)

filmAEO pick: "Glory" (Selma)

BEST SOUND EDITING

Will Win: American Sniper

Should Win: American Sniper

Could Win: Birdman

filmAEO pick: American Sniper (War films are normally loud and this film is patriotic.)

BEST SOUND MIXING

Will Win: Whiplash

Should Win: Whiplash

Could Win: American Sniper

filmAEO pick: Whiplash (The blend of dialogue and drums sets the tone of the film.)

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Will Win: Interstellar

Should Win: Interstellar

Could Win: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

filmAEO pick: Interstellar (The use of engineering software and mathematical modelling to visualise black holes and wormholes is a revolutionary movement.)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Will Win: Citizenfour

Should Win: Citizenfour

Could Win: Virunga or Finding Vivian Maier

filmAEO pick: Citizenfour

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

Will Win: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1

Should Win: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1

Could Win: Joanna

filmAEO pick: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1

Final Review of the 87th Academy Awards

TIME is ticking, yet Best Picture is an unknown

The 87th Academy Awards ceremony will start at 20:30 in Los Angeles on 22nd February 2015. For friends in the UK, this means GMT 01:30, 23rd February; and for family and friends of filmAEO in HK, this is HKT 09:30, 23rd February.

The Best Picture race is still provoking arguments in which each perspective has its own grounds and supportive statistics. This year is unlike what we saw on knowing 12 Years A Slave from last year or Argo from two years ago were clearly the Best Picture frontrunners. There are many possibilities this year and up till this ticking moment, any one can be a frontrunner. The strong ones are Boyhood, Birdman and The Grand Budapest Hotel.

Academy voters revealing their choices

This is the period of wait and see what will happen on Sunday night, as members of the Academy have submitted their votes. Some have already reviewed their grounds to film critics, and the general impression is that popularly acclaimed films like Boyhood, Birdman and Whiplash can put off a minority of Academy voters. Interestingly, in filmAEO's opinion, these three films are truly cinematic, yet their endings are either rushing off or not clearly established to the audience.

Voters can have a broad range of taste and preferences, but what they ultimately look for is a Best Picture that is special to endeavour, so the tone of the movie can either be heavy (e.g. No Country for Old Men and 12 Years A Slave) or light (e.g. The Artist and Forrest Gump). The definition of 'special' can be viewed as when people look back into the past winners 12 years or so later, they could still remember the significance of those Best Picture winners. This is why we define Best Picture winners like The Godfather, Gone With the Wind, Casablanca etc. as cinema 'classics'.

Therefore, there must be some dominating factor that would draw voters to a conclusion that moviegoers will remember the significance of the 'Best Picture' for a while, and extending its legacy to future generations to become classics. What is the factor this year? Could be...... LOVE.

Love and Hugs

What are the huggable Best Picture nominees then? Still Boyhood, with additions from The Grand Budapest Hotel and The Theory of Everything. 

Boyhood has the love factor of humanity in which the audience and voters would find resemblance to. Linklater's masterpiece on capturing Boyhood's characters over 12 years and reminding us the fact that we had innocent, good and bad times in our childhood (Boy's perspective). Then, getting old enough to accept the truth that age and time go forward when you start to hold responsibility for your family and parenting the 'Boyhood' of your children (Mum and Dad's perspective).

Since March of 2014, The Grand Budapest Hotel has kept its momentum in winning awards here and there throughout the year. Not many acclaimed films released early in the year could do so to remind the Academy voters, not even The Lego Movie. Budapest is funny, colourful, rich and many other words to describe when one can develop so much feeling for this film. Critics, voters and the audience have been mentioning this film all year round, thus it has made it to the Academy Awards and it should receive the technical awards from its 9 nominations. However, to be a remarkable Best Picture, Budapest is a risky choice. The situation is like Hugo in 2011, when it won many technical awards, but not Best Picture and Best Director (Martin Scorsese). If Boyhood and Birdman did not exist as contenders, Budapest would have an easy win on Best Picture, so as its director and visionary Wes Anderson. The world and vision of Wes Anderson have always been surrealistic and quirky, but he makes the audience believe silly characters and funny stories could happen. Budapest has made the peak of Wes Anderson's career and filmAEO hopes he will make another peak in the near future to earn his position for a 'Best Director' win.

My Left Foot, A Beautiful Mind, Rain Man, Dallas Buyers Club etc. are emotional films that possess passion and make the audience to feel for the character when he has to overcome some physical or psychological barrier. This is also evident in Theory of Everything when the grand mind and life of Professor Stephen Hawkings is portrayed by Eddie Redmayne who also happens to be a fellow from University of Cambridge. Following the trend of Screen Actors Guild Awards to Best Actor wins at the Oscars, Eddie Redmayne should receive 'Best Actor', as Matthew McConaughey did for Dallas Buyers Club and Daniel Day Lewis for My Left Foot. Moreover, Felicity Jones' performance as Jane Hawkings has supported Eddie's role and solidified the underlying messages of the story. With a very likely win for 'Best Original Score' based on the orchestral creations by Johann Johannsson, Theory of Everything is a pleasant win for Best Picture and any of its other 4 nominations.

Stranger than fiction?

Boyhood and Birdman are the frontrunners of Best Picture and they are both original. Originality and creativity of the plot have made an impact this year because two other Best Picture contenders, Whiplash and The Grand Budapest Hotel, are produced originally and their characters are all fictional. However, a point to note is that Whiplash is categorised and nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay. Boyhood, Birdman and The Grand Budapest Hotel are all nominated for Best Original Screenplay, and they are seen as the strongest 3 contenders for Best Picture, with Birdman being the strongest after Producers Guild and Directors Guild Awards (PGA and DGA).

For the remaining contenders American Sniper, Selma, The Theory of Everything and The Imitation Game, they are all non-fictional and are based on real life stories. All, except Selma, are nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay. However these 4 films are seen as weaker links to Best Picture.

The year is dominated by creativity rather than published works or real life stories, and the critics and audience have taken in these new perspectives which Boyhood, Birdman or The Grand Budapest Hotel offer. Voting for Best Picture is preferential, however it is more likely that the number one choice votes would go to a nominee that has an original story.

Split vote

The question is how Birdman could possibly overtake Boyhood, or the other way round, to win the ultimate title. Let us comment about the pros and cons for these two films:

Birdman

Pros

• Different, creative, dramatic, entertaining
• Great cast
• A story about the show business (Earns the heart of voters and critics)
• Great cinematography as if the film is done in one single shot
• Director is a visionary

Cons

• Ending is open-ended and unclear
• Too quirky for some audience

Boyhood

Pros

• First film ever to actually film the life of actors/actresses over 12 years
• Simple and beautiful blend among the casts
• Love factor
• Great film direction and editing
• Thought-provoking on love and life
• Feels like an important film

Cons

• No climax throughout the film
• Comes to the point when you feel it is more like a documentary rather than a feature film
• Too long, nearly 3 hours
• Lack of entertainment

Both films have their unique aspects that deserve a Best Picture win, yet they have no historical importance at all. It is a battle between human emotion (Boyhood) and the weird love for show business (Birdman). If one does not get Best Picture, there may be a chance for the director to win Best Director. This was what happened consecutively for the last two years:

2013, 86th: 12 Years A Slave (Best Picture) and Gravity (Best Director)

2012, 85th: Argo (Best Picture) and Life of Pi (Best Director)

However, statistics over the past have shown that Best Picture would come with Best Director. Would we predict the trend which would call for a split of wins in Best Picture and Best Director, or follow the powerful statistics over the history? This is down to your call. If you fancy the quirkiness of Birdman, it will fly off to be a different Best Picture than previous years. Boyhood are for those who are conservative to honour a 'Best Picture', yet knowing the greatest cinema of all time requires patience and simplicity.

Here are some surprising or peculiar choices that the Academy honoured 'Best Picture' in the past:

2007: No Country for Old Men

2005: Crash over Brokeback Mountain

2003: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (Fantasy/Sci-fi film winning)

2002: Chicago over The Pianist

1998: Shakespeare in Love over Saving Private Ryan

1980: Ordinary People over Raging Bull and The Elephant Man

1956: Around the World in 80 Days over Giant

Will Win, Should Win & Could Win

filmAEO has not officially announced the final 87th Oscars predictions yet, but we will release them tomorrow in the form of 'Will Win', 'Should Win' and 'Could Win', as it is an open race for many categories. Stay tuned, keep calm and enjoy the Oscars which happens once every year.

87th Academy Awards Predictions: Be prepared for snubs and surprises!

Less than a day before the 87th Academy Awards nominations will be announced by Chris Pine, Alfonso Cuaron and J.J. Abrams. Do you spot anything they have in common? They are stars from star-related films such as Star Trek and Gravity. Does this hint Interstellar will have the most nominations? Very unlikely for the top honours. Therefore, which films will receive nominations for the major categories? To speak with confidence and experience:

Boyhood
Birdman
The Imitation Game
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Selma

The rest is still unclear, and seldom would I use the word 'confused' in the context of predictions. You may skip to the predictions section from here, but filmAEO has valid reasons as to why snubs and surprises would be expected tomorrow.

Best Picture links to Best Director

To get the predictions correctly, one tends to think about the preferences of Academy voters, even provided that they have not screened some films at all. Therefore, the best way to guess is to see if the strong contenders have a strong deck of other nominations. Golden Globes and Screen Actors Guild nominations are great indicators of Oscars nominations, although Golden Globes winners are well known for not accurately matching Oscars winners. The dilemma comes when you see Clint Eastwood (American Sniper) and Morten Tyldum (The Imitation Game) were the surprising nominations for the Directors Guild of America (DGA awards), instead of Ava DuVernay (Selma) and David Fincher (Gone Girl). This issue backtracks the predictions for Best Picture, and one might think a nomination for Gone Girl would be gone. Also, the thought of Ben Affleck being snubbed two years ago for Argo would remain a classic example for those who did not get a DGA nomination. Thus, filmAEO thinks Ava DuVernay will make it to the five, especially when the Academy favours diversity and the fact that Selma is historically depicting Martin Luther King.

As we all know the Academy tends to think differently, supporters of Wes Anderson may have to be prepared for a snub at Best Director. On the bright side, his sure Best Original Screenplay nomination will solidify the ultimate win, similar to Ben Affleck receiving Best Picture for Argo despite the Director snub. The Directing category is always one of the trickiest to predict due to its limited number of voters within the Academy, unlike DGA which has over thousands of members.

Other tricky categories

Best Supporting Actress
- Jessica Chastain has done a lot of films this year, especially well performed in A Most Violent Year, yet Rene Russo in Nightcrawler can be a threat due to the momentum the film is picking up.
- Laura Dern in Wild can be nominated afterall, despite missing all the nominations for Globes and Screen Actors Guild.

Best Original Score
- Alexandre Desplat clashing his own votes on Unbroken, The Imitation Game and The Grand Budapest Hotel.
- Alexandre Desplat ending up with two nominations.

Best Cinematography
- When Unbroken is not critically acclaimed, but its Cinematographer Roger Deakins is always appraised for whatever he does.

Best Film Editing
- The rule of thumb for most Best Picture nominees to have a least a nomination for editing. Will Lee Smith for Interstellar be nominated when the space-time travelling motion picture has confused most of the audience?

Overall impression

- The contenders for Best Picture that filmAEO has picked are as equally entertaining as one another, unlike last year when American Hustle and Dallas Buyers Club were strongly preferred.
- Some potential contenders have an open-ended conclusion that is seen unclear, and their directors would moan themselves for this.
- In some categories, veterans are in the way of emerging talented artists, but these newbies can still make an impression with a nomination.
- Whatever the result is, be prepared for the snubs and surprises!

KEEP CALM and see predictions from filmAEO :)

filmAEO predictions for 87th Academy Awards

Best Picture

American Sniper

Boyhood

Birdman

Gone Girl

Nightcrawler

Selma

The Grand Budapest Hotel

The Imitation Game

The Theory of Everything

Whiplash

Best Director

Richard Linklater (Boyhood)

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (Birdman)

Ava DuVernay (Selma)

Morten Tyldum (The Imitation Game)

Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel)

Best Actor

Michael Keaton (Birdman)

Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game)

Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything)

David Oyelowo (Selma)

Jake Gyllenhaal (Nightcrawler)

Best Actress

Julianne Moore (Still Alice)

Reese Witherspoon (Wild)

Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything)

Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl)

Jennifer Aniston (Cake)

Best Supporting Actor

J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)

Edward Norton (Birdman)

Ethan Hawke (Boyhood)

Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher)

Robert Duvall (The Judge)

Best Supporting Actress

Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)

Keira Knightley (The Imitation Game)

Emma Stone (Birdman)

Meryl Streep (Into the Woods)

Jessica Chastain (A Most Violent Year)

Best Original Screenplay

The Grand Budapest Hotel

Boyhood

Selma

Birdman

Nightcrawler

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Imitation Game

Gone Girl

Whiplash

The Theory of Everything

Wild

Best Animated Feature

The LEGO Movie

How To Train Your Dragon 2

Big Hero 6

Song of the Sea

The Tale of Princess Kaguya

Best Foreign Language Film

Ida (Poland)

Tangerines (Estonia)

Wild Tales (Argentina)

Force Majuere (Sweden)

Leviathan (Russia)

Best Cinematography

Interstellar

Mr. Turner

Birdman

The Grand Budapest Hotel

Unbroken

Best Costume Design

Into the Woods

The Grand Budapest Hotel

Mr. Turner

Maleficent

Big Eyes

Best Film Editing

Nightcrawler

Boyhood

The Imitation Game

Whiplash

Birdman

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Foxcatcher

The Grand Budapest Hotel

Guardians of the Galaxy

Best Production Design

Birdman

The Grand Budapest Hotel

Interstellar

Into the Woods

Mr. Turner

Best Original Score

Interstellar

Gone Girl

The Theory of Everything

The Grand Budapest Hotel

The Imitation Game

Best Original Song

"Glory" (Selma)

"Everything is Awesome" (The LEGO Movie)

"Mercy Is" (Noah)

"Lost Stars" (Begin Again)

"I'm Not Gonna Miss You" (Glen Campbell… I'll Be Me)

Best Sound Editing

Interstellar

Godzilla

Unbroken

American Sniper

Fury

Best Sound Mixing

Interstellar

American Sniper

Whiplash

Into the Woods

Birdman

Best Visual Effects

Interstellar

Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

Guardians of the Galaxy

The Hobbit: Battle of the Five Armies

Godzilla

72nd Golden Globes Predictions

                                                                                                                       Courtesy of Vulture

It is a crucial week ahead for Hollywood because the 87th Academy Awards will be announced on 15th January (Thursday). What is more exciting ahead in a few hours (GMT 01:00, 12th January) would be the 72nd Golden Globes Awards hosted by Tina Fey and Amy Poehler for the third consecutive time. Although the Globes has a limited base of voters within their committee, winners of the night will boost momentum in their race for the ultimate honours, the Oscars. At these striking hours of reviewing the nominees for the Globes, filmAEO makes the daring predictions once again.

Motion Picture, Drama

Prediction: Boyhood

Reason: Never has a film done so to put this amount of effort on filming for 12 years. Director Richard Linklater has been making great films over the years and this has truly topped his career. Partricia Arquette's performance which is likely to win Best Supporting Actress would anchor the film's position for this award title.

Motion Picture, Comedy

Prediction: Birdman

Reason: Cinematography utilising natural lighting and contrast, coherence of the story all in one shot with nearly no editing at all (actually there was) and its great cast ensemble etc. These main factors contribute to the win of the title. Possible wins for Best Director and Best Actor, Comedy/Musical increase its chances as well.

Director

Prediction: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (Birdman)

Reason: Lost this title to Martin Scorsese few years ago when he filmed Babel. An overdue for sure and the Globe committee owes him big time. Linklater may take over the title for his 12 years' effort and commitment to Boyhood, yet Inarritu filmed Birdman with less effort and demonstrated the art of filming well balanced in every aspect.

Actor, Drama

Prediction: Eddie Redmayne (Theory of Everything)

Reason: Two words: Stephen Redmayne. His performance, in particular facial expressions, bears a great resemblance to Stephen Hawking in person.

Actor, Comedy/Musical

Prediction: Michael Keaton (Birdman)

Reason: Been quiet for many years and his acting potential is yet to be noticed since Batman. All you need is one film in your acting career to take away the top prizes, and this is the moment for Michael Keaton.

Actress, Drama

Prediction: Julianne Moore (Still Alice)

Reason: Seeing the changes of an Alzhemier patient and understanding them through Julianne's performance, they are simply the winning elements when emotions convert into votes. Julianne is also nominated in Actress, Comedy/Musical category this year. This is the right moment to give her the title, which is also an appraisal for her amazing performances throughout these years.

Actress, Comedy/Musical

Prediction: Emily Blunt (Into the Woods)

Reason: If Amy Adams did not win last year, the title would have been hers. However, Emily Blunt's singing and acting is equally as amazing as Amy in Big Eyes.

Supporting Actor

Prediction: J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)

Reason: This is the tempo you need as a supporting actor. Simmons' character has amplified the intensity of Whiplash.

Supporting Actress

Prediction: Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)

Reason: She is the center of mass for Boyhood as the Mother to bring up the Boy. Great performance all the way through the film, meanwhile seeing her physical changes (aging) and the audience will always remember her last scene before the film ends.

Screenplay

Prediction: Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel)

Reason: The Grand Budapest Hotel has become the highest grossing film of Wes Anderson's works. This is the category in which he would be recognised and rewarded for. 

Animated Feature

Prediction: The LEGO Movie

Reason: Everything is AWESOME! Lego has been a childhood memory for most of these Globes voters, and the many characters will be the everlasting collective memory for audience and future generations.

Foreign Language Film

Prediction: Ida 


87th Academy Awards Predictions up soon at filmAEO. Stay tuned!