87th Academy Awards Final Predictions

BEST PICTURE

Will Win: Birdman (won PGA and DGA which are reliable precursors)

Should Win: Boyhood (won BAFTA and Golden Globes)

Could Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

filmAEO pick: Boyhood

BEST DIRECTOR

Will Win: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman (won DGA, which is a strong precursor)

Should Win: Richard Linklater, Boyhood (won BAFTA and Golden Globes)

Could Win: Richard Linklater, Boyhood

filmAEO pick: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman

BEST ACTOR

Will Win: Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything (won BAFTA, SAG and Golden Globes)

Should Win: Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

Could Win: Michael Keaton, Birdman (won Golden Globes)

filmAEO pick: Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

BEST ACTRESS

Will Win: Julianne Moore, Still Alice (won every important awards, so unbeatable)

Should Win: Julianne Moore, Still Alice

Could Win: N/A

filmAEO pick: Julianne Moore, Still Alice

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Will Win: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash (won every important awards, so unbeatable)

Should Win: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

Could Win: N/A

filmAEO pick: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Will Win: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood (won every important awards, so unbeatable)

Should Win: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood

Could Win: N/A

filmAEO pick: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Will Win: The Imitation Game

Should Win: The Imitation Game

Could Win: Whiplash

filmAEO pick: The Imitation Game (Voters would have been confused about the originality of Whiplash that should have been categorised as Original Screenplay.)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Will Win: Birdman (Best Picture normally comes with a screenplay award)

Should Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel (The plot and characters are well loved.)

Could Win: Birdman

filmAEO pick: The Grand Budapest Hotel (Love factor + Wes Anderson should get an Oscar)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Will Win: How To Train Your Dragon 2

Should Win: How To Train Your Dragon 2

Could Win: Big Hero 6

filmAEO pick: How To Train Your Dragon 2

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Will Win: Ida (Poland)

Should Win: Leviathan (Russia)

Could Win: Wild Tales (Argentina)

filmAEO pick: Ida (Poland)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Will Win: Birdman (Its cinematographer, Emmanuel Lubezki, has won everything.)

Should Win: Birdman

Could Win: Ida (Have to admit that the film's shots and play with contrast in light are distinctive.)

filmAEO pick: Birdman (No artificial lighting, simply a play with stage lighting and impressive one-take.)

BEST FILM EDITING

Will Win: Boyhood 

Should Win: Boyhood

Could Win: Whiplash or American Sniper

filmAEO pick: Boyhood (Best Picture normally comes with a Best Editing win.)

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Should Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Could Win: Mr. Turner

filmAEO pick: The Grand Budapest Hotel (A cohort of technical wins for the film.)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Should Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Could Win: Mr. Turner

filmAEO pick: The Grand Budapest Hotel (A cohort of technical wins for the film.)

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Should Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Could Win: Guardians of the Galaxy

filmAEO pick: The Grand Budapest Hotel (A cohort of technical wins for the film.)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Should Win: The Theory of Everything

Could Win: The Theory of Everything

filmAEO pick: The Grand Budapest Hotel (A cohort of technical wins for the film + Final win for Alexandre Desplat)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Will Win: "Glory" (Selma)

Should Win: "Lost Stars" (Begin Again)

Could Win: "Everything is Awesome" (The LEGO Movie)

filmAEO pick: "Glory" (Selma)

BEST SOUND EDITING

Will Win: American Sniper

Should Win: American Sniper

Could Win: Birdman

filmAEO pick: American Sniper (War films are normally loud and this film is patriotic.)

BEST SOUND MIXING

Will Win: Whiplash

Should Win: Whiplash

Could Win: American Sniper

filmAEO pick: Whiplash (The blend of dialogue and drums sets the tone of the film.)

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Will Win: Interstellar

Should Win: Interstellar

Could Win: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

filmAEO pick: Interstellar (The use of engineering software and mathematical modelling to visualise black holes and wormholes is a revolutionary movement.)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Will Win: Citizenfour

Should Win: Citizenfour

Could Win: Virunga or Finding Vivian Maier

filmAEO pick: Citizenfour

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

Will Win: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1

Should Win: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1

Could Win: Joanna

filmAEO pick: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1

Final Review of the 87th Academy Awards

TIME is ticking, yet Best Picture is an unknown

The 87th Academy Awards ceremony will start at 20:30 in Los Angeles on 22nd February 2015. For friends in the UK, this means GMT 01:30, 23rd February; and for family and friends of filmAEO in HK, this is HKT 09:30, 23rd February.

The Best Picture race is still provoking arguments in which each perspective has its own grounds and supportive statistics. This year is unlike what we saw on knowing 12 Years A Slave from last year or Argo from two years ago were clearly the Best Picture frontrunners. There are many possibilities this year and up till this ticking moment, any one can be a frontrunner. The strong ones are Boyhood, Birdman and The Grand Budapest Hotel.

Academy voters revealing their choices

This is the period of wait and see what will happen on Sunday night, as members of the Academy have submitted their votes. Some have already reviewed their grounds to film critics, and the general impression is that popularly acclaimed films like Boyhood, Birdman and Whiplash can put off a minority of Academy voters. Interestingly, in filmAEO's opinion, these three films are truly cinematic, yet their endings are either rushing off or not clearly established to the audience.

Voters can have a broad range of taste and preferences, but what they ultimately look for is a Best Picture that is special to endeavour, so the tone of the movie can either be heavy (e.g. No Country for Old Men and 12 Years A Slave) or light (e.g. The Artist and Forrest Gump). The definition of 'special' can be viewed as when people look back into the past winners 12 years or so later, they could still remember the significance of those Best Picture winners. This is why we define Best Picture winners like The Godfather, Gone With the Wind, Casablanca etc. as cinema 'classics'.

Therefore, there must be some dominating factor that would draw voters to a conclusion that moviegoers will remember the significance of the 'Best Picture' for a while, and extending its legacy to future generations to become classics. What is the factor this year? Could be...... LOVE.

Love and Hugs

What are the huggable Best Picture nominees then? Still Boyhood, with additions from The Grand Budapest Hotel and The Theory of Everything. 

Boyhood has the love factor of humanity in which the audience and voters would find resemblance to. Linklater's masterpiece on capturing Boyhood's characters over 12 years and reminding us the fact that we had innocent, good and bad times in our childhood (Boy's perspective). Then, getting old enough to accept the truth that age and time go forward when you start to hold responsibility for your family and parenting the 'Boyhood' of your children (Mum and Dad's perspective).

Since March of 2014, The Grand Budapest Hotel has kept its momentum in winning awards here and there throughout the year. Not many acclaimed films released early in the year could do so to remind the Academy voters, not even The Lego Movie. Budapest is funny, colourful, rich and many other words to describe when one can develop so much feeling for this film. Critics, voters and the audience have been mentioning this film all year round, thus it has made it to the Academy Awards and it should receive the technical awards from its 9 nominations. However, to be a remarkable Best Picture, Budapest is a risky choice. The situation is like Hugo in 2011, when it won many technical awards, but not Best Picture and Best Director (Martin Scorsese). If Boyhood and Birdman did not exist as contenders, Budapest would have an easy win on Best Picture, so as its director and visionary Wes Anderson. The world and vision of Wes Anderson have always been surrealistic and quirky, but he makes the audience believe silly characters and funny stories could happen. Budapest has made the peak of Wes Anderson's career and filmAEO hopes he will make another peak in the near future to earn his position for a 'Best Director' win.

My Left Foot, A Beautiful Mind, Rain Man, Dallas Buyers Club etc. are emotional films that possess passion and make the audience to feel for the character when he has to overcome some physical or psychological barrier. This is also evident in Theory of Everything when the grand mind and life of Professor Stephen Hawkings is portrayed by Eddie Redmayne who also happens to be a fellow from University of Cambridge. Following the trend of Screen Actors Guild Awards to Best Actor wins at the Oscars, Eddie Redmayne should receive 'Best Actor', as Matthew McConaughey did for Dallas Buyers Club and Daniel Day Lewis for My Left Foot. Moreover, Felicity Jones' performance as Jane Hawkings has supported Eddie's role and solidified the underlying messages of the story. With a very likely win for 'Best Original Score' based on the orchestral creations by Johann Johannsson, Theory of Everything is a pleasant win for Best Picture and any of its other 4 nominations.

Stranger than fiction?

Boyhood and Birdman are the frontrunners of Best Picture and they are both original. Originality and creativity of the plot have made an impact this year because two other Best Picture contenders, Whiplash and The Grand Budapest Hotel, are produced originally and their characters are all fictional. However, a point to note is that Whiplash is categorised and nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay. Boyhood, Birdman and The Grand Budapest Hotel are all nominated for Best Original Screenplay, and they are seen as the strongest 3 contenders for Best Picture, with Birdman being the strongest after Producers Guild and Directors Guild Awards (PGA and DGA).

For the remaining contenders American Sniper, Selma, The Theory of Everything and The Imitation Game, they are all non-fictional and are based on real life stories. All, except Selma, are nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay. However these 4 films are seen as weaker links to Best Picture.

The year is dominated by creativity rather than published works or real life stories, and the critics and audience have taken in these new perspectives which Boyhood, Birdman or The Grand Budapest Hotel offer. Voting for Best Picture is preferential, however it is more likely that the number one choice votes would go to a nominee that has an original story.

Split vote

The question is how Birdman could possibly overtake Boyhood, or the other way round, to win the ultimate title. Let us comment about the pros and cons for these two films:

Birdman

Pros

• Different, creative, dramatic, entertaining
• Great cast
• A story about the show business (Earns the heart of voters and critics)
• Great cinematography as if the film is done in one single shot
• Director is a visionary

Cons

• Ending is open-ended and unclear
• Too quirky for some audience

Boyhood

Pros

• First film ever to actually film the life of actors/actresses over 12 years
• Simple and beautiful blend among the casts
• Love factor
• Great film direction and editing
• Thought-provoking on love and life
• Feels like an important film

Cons

• No climax throughout the film
• Comes to the point when you feel it is more like a documentary rather than a feature film
• Too long, nearly 3 hours
• Lack of entertainment

Both films have their unique aspects that deserve a Best Picture win, yet they have no historical importance at all. It is a battle between human emotion (Boyhood) and the weird love for show business (Birdman). If one does not get Best Picture, there may be a chance for the director to win Best Director. This was what happened consecutively for the last two years:

2013, 86th: 12 Years A Slave (Best Picture) and Gravity (Best Director)

2012, 85th: Argo (Best Picture) and Life of Pi (Best Director)

However, statistics over the past have shown that Best Picture would come with Best Director. Would we predict the trend which would call for a split of wins in Best Picture and Best Director, or follow the powerful statistics over the history? This is down to your call. If you fancy the quirkiness of Birdman, it will fly off to be a different Best Picture than previous years. Boyhood are for those who are conservative to honour a 'Best Picture', yet knowing the greatest cinema of all time requires patience and simplicity.

Here are some surprising or peculiar choices that the Academy honoured 'Best Picture' in the past:

2007: No Country for Old Men

2005: Crash over Brokeback Mountain

2003: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (Fantasy/Sci-fi film winning)

2002: Chicago over The Pianist

1998: Shakespeare in Love over Saving Private Ryan

1980: Ordinary People over Raging Bull and The Elephant Man

1956: Around the World in 80 Days over Giant

Will Win, Should Win & Could Win

filmAEO has not officially announced the final 87th Oscars predictions yet, but we will release them tomorrow in the form of 'Will Win', 'Should Win' and 'Could Win', as it is an open race for many categories. Stay tuned, keep calm and enjoy the Oscars which happens once every year.