86th Academy Awards Best Actress Analysis

This category can either be very obvious, when the nominee has a sweep in other major awards, or surprising when Halle Berry won for Monster's Ball in 2001. Looking at the nominees for Best Actress, filmAEO goes for the obvious choice who already swept the major awards.

Who Will Win?

Cate Blanchett - Blue Jasmine

Cate Blanchett in Blue Jasmine is the straight answer. Considering her supporting win in The Aviator as the legendary actress Katherine Hepburn, she has already gained applause and firm support from the Academy. A stronger evidence for her locked win is purely because of Woody Allen, the quirky, imaginative and romantic director of our times. His films have turned their actresses into Academy Award winners, such as the prominent example of Diane Keaton winning Best Actress for Annie Hall. Both Cate and Woody are favourites of the Academy, and from time to time, they get nominated for their works as well as wins, as seen from Woody's Best Original Screenplay win for Midnight in Paris in 2010.

Cate's dramatic role as a middle-aged woman who went from total wealthy socialist New York life down to poverty when she imposes on her sister in San Francisco. Her emotional insanity reflected her demanding desires to live off wealth and riches with no worries, yet her situation after a divorce turned into literally nothing. Such reversal in life related to one's adaptability is what voters like to see and Cate truly brings out the wild and mental aspects of this conversion. However, Cate is simply beautiful and attractive which keeps her falling back into the traces of a wealthy life in the story. This displays dilemma which audience and voters feel for.

Bad news do hurt

This year's Best Actress race was dominated by Cate Blanchett in Blue Jasmine until the sex scandal of the film's director Woody Allen broke out recently, and critics now wonder if her secured win becomes vulnerable indirectly because of the rumors accusing of the director. However, it would be really unfair to Cate Blanchett if she loses eventually because this wave of scandals initiated by the Farrows has nothing to do with her personally, so as her brilliant performance. Unlike Russell Crowe accusing of the producer at the BAFTAs back in 2001 when his role in A Beautiful Mind was nominated, Cate has been staying as mutual as possible and poses no bad mouth or subjective views to any one. Therefore, the chance of getting a 2nd Oscar still holds for her.

The possible upset

If Hollywood were to judge Woody and punish his films due to his past behaviour, who will be the strongest one among the other four nominees to take over Cate's win? The most probable win would go to Amy Adams in American Hustle because she has been an overdue star at the Oscars with 4 previous nominations in Best Supporting Actress. Moreover, American Hustle must at least win something if we fail to see it winning Best Picture and Best Supporting Actress for Jennifer Lawrence.

The arguments against Amy, Sandra, Judi and Meryl

Amy Adams - American Hustle

Although remarkably nominated for 4 times previously, this is her first time to compete in Best Actress race. Also, to really give American Hustle a deserving win on something, either it will be Best Original Screenplay or Best Supporting Actress. She has still got some amazing years ahead, so her ultimate win will happen, but not this year.

Sandra Bullock - Gravity

Her solo performance is the heart of Gravity which pulls our attention to the fluctuating emotions of her character. However, solo performances do not have huge coherence to most voters, as seen from James Franco in 127 Hours and evidently Robert Redford's failed attempt to be nominated in All is Lost this year for Best Actor. Moreover, she has won before for The Blind Side setting an example of a successful and well-respected comeback performance in her career. After all, sci-fi performances hardly win anything if you date back to 1986 when Sigourney Weaver was nominated for Best Actress in Aliens without winning.

Judi Dench - Philomena

This Dame has won before for Best Supporting Actress and her performance in Philomena was brilliant. However, the film itself is the type that receives nominations yet literally no wins, even Harvey Weinstein would pull strings behind the curtains. Also, as a British star, she lost the BAFTA Best Actress to Cate Blanchett. 

Meryl Streep - August: Osage County

This record-breaking actress for most nominations in Best Actress still keeps the momentum going at the Oscars. With two previous wins for Best Actress already, even herself cannot believe her performance would earn a nomination over Emma Thompson's Saving Mr. Banks. However, filmAEO believed in Meryl with a spot-on nomination once again. Yet, she is just there as a feel-good factor for Oscar voters instead of being accused and criticised when Meryl is not on the list. It was a compelling performance, but not the kind to impress voters and put a vote for, even knowing she is Meryl Streep.