88th Academy Awards Nominations Predictions (& What we learnt over these weeks!)

WE ALL DREAM IN GOLD......

                                                         Chris Rock will host the 88th Oscars

***SCROLL DOWN FOR PREDICTIONS***

When is it announced?

88th Oscars nominations will be announced at 5:30 a.m. PST (8:30 a.m. EST) at the Samuel Goldwyn Theater on 14th January, 2016. If you have no clue about time zones, use an online time zone converter. For Hong Kong friends, this is Thursday evening 9:30pm.

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What is the current buzz?

73rd Golden Globes Results

• Shocking results, but should have foreseen the Globes owing Alejandro G. Inarritu

• The Revenant is a sure nominee for Oscars, but probably not the winner

• Winners that do make sense and are precursors to the Oscars: Leonardo diCaprio for Best Actor, Drama (The Revenant); Brie Larson for Best Actress, Drama (Room)

• Promising films that will win the Oscars: Son of Saul for Best Foreign Language Film; Inside Out for Best Animated Feature

• Results that can now add instability to the Oscars race: Sylvester Stallone for Best Supporting Actor (Creed); Kate Winslet for Best Supporting Actress in (Steve Jobs); Aaron Sorkin for Best Screenplay (Steve Jobs); Ennio Morricone for Best Original Score (The Hateful Eight)

• Winners that will not win anything at the Oscars: Alejandro G. Inarritu for Best Director in The Revenant; Sam Smith for Best Song "Writing's on the Wall" (Spectre)

BAFTA nominations

• Best Picture nominees The Big Short, Spotlight, Carol, The Revenant should garner enough Best Picture buzz at the Oscars

• Bridge of Spies and Carol walked home with 9 nominations, The Revenant seconding at 8 nominations

• Mad Max: Fury Road has 7 nominations, but mainly in the technical categories

• The Martian got snubbed for Best Picture, but it should have love from the Oscars

• Nominated directors Steven Spielberg (Bridge of Spies) and Adam McKay (The Big Short) are gathering buzzes for Best Director race

• The nominated original screenplay of Ex Machina can be a surprise at the Oscars nominations

• Very confused about where Alicia Vikander stands for her role in The Danish Girl - Best Actress or Best Supporting Actress????

• Nominated Benicio del Toro for Best Supporting Actor in Sicario could suddenly hit the Oscars

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88th Oscars Best Picture Nominations Deduction 

Table: No. of nominations obtained for films in each major award & Overall count

Film	BAFTA	Golden Globes	Critics' Choice	PGA	AFI Top 10	5/5 count
Bridge of Spies	9	1	5	**	**	5
Carol	9	5	9		**	4
The Revenant	8	4	9	**		4
Mad Max: Fury Road	7	2	9	**	**	5
Brooklyn	6	1	5	**		4
The Martian	6	3	8	**	**	5
The Big Short	5	4	3	**	**	5
Star Wars: The Force Awakens	4	0	0		**	4
Sicario	3	0	3	**		4
Spotlight	3	3	7	**	**	5
Steve Jobs	3	4	3			3
The Hateful Eight	3	3	5			3
Inside Out	2	1	2	**	**	5
Room	2	3	3		**	4

**Listed as the award's best films or top 10

Deduction......

1st criteria: BAFTA nominations (Closest set of major awards nominations to date)
2nd criteria: 5/5 Count rule (Refer to Table)


SAFE NOMINATIONS (= BAFTA noms more than or equal to 3 + Count with 5/5)

1. Bridge of Spies
2. Mad Max: Fury Road
3. The Martian
4. The Big Short
5. Spotlight

SECOND TIER NOMINATIONS (= BAFTA noms more than or equal to 6 + Count with 4/5)

6. Carol

7. The Revenant

8. Brooklyn

DARK HORSES (= BAFTA noms more than or equal to 2 + Count with 4/5)

9. Room
10. Sicario
11. Star Wars: The Force Awakens

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filmAEO predictions to 88th Oscars nominations

Best Picture

Bridge of Spies

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Martian

The Big Short

Spotlight

Carol

The Revenant

Brooklyn

Room

Sicario

Best Director

Alejandro G. Inarritu (The Revenant)

Todd Haynes (Carol)

Ridley Scott (The Martian)

George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road)

Tom McCarthy (Spotlight)

Best Actor

Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant)

Bryan Cranston (Trumbo)

Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl)

Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs)

Matt Damon (The Martian)

Best Actress

Brie Larson (Room)

Jennifer Lawrence (Joy)

Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn)

Cate Blanchett (Carol)

Charlotte Rampling (45 Years)

Best Supporting Actor

Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies)

Sylvester Stallone (Creed)

Christian Bale (The Big Short)

Mark Ruffalo (Spotlight)

Benicio del Toro (Sicario)

Best Supporting Actress

Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs)

Rooney Mara (Carol)

Jennifer Jason Leigh (The Hateful Eight)

Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl)

Rachel McAdams (Spotlight)

Best Original Screenplay

Spotlight

Ex Machina

The Hateful Eight

Inside Out

Bridge of Spies

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Big Short

Steve Jobs

Carol

The Martian

Room

Best Cinematography

Mad Max: Fury Road

Sicario

Bridge of Spies

The Revenant

Carol

Best Film Editing

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Martian

The Big Short

The Revenant

Spotlight

Best Costume Design

Carol

Brooklyn

The Danish Girl

Cinderella

Bridge of Spies

Best Production Design

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Martian

Bridge of Spies

Carol

Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Revenant

Black Mass

Best Original Score

John Williams (Star Wars: The Force Awakens)

Ennio Morricone (The Hateful Eight)

Carter Burwell (Carol)

Michael Giacchino (Inside Out)

Alexandre Desplat (The Danish Girl)

Best Sound Editing

Sicario

Mad Max: Fury Road

Star Wars: The Force Awakens

The Martian

The Revenant

Best Sound Mixing

Straight Outta Compton

Mad Max: Fury Road

Star Wars: The Force Awakens

The Martian

The Revenant

Best Visual Effects

Ant-Man

Star Wars: The Force Awakens

The Martian

The Walk

Jurassic World

Best Animated Feature

Inside Out

Anomalisa

The Good Dinosaur

The Peanuts Movie

Shaun the Sheep Movie

Best Foreign Language Film

Son of Saul (Hungary)

Mustang (France)

Labyrinth of Lies (Germany)

Theeb (Jordan)

A War (Denmark)

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What do you think of our daring predictions and the deduction to Best Picture nominees? Be sure to check them out on 14th January, 2016 (Thursday)

filmAEO

Last-Minute DGA Predictions

Nominees for Directors Guild of America Awards (DGA) for Outstanding Directing will be announced today in less than a few hours. Usually, whoever wins this award should take on the Oscars as well. Let us quickly predict who would make it to the nomination list for directing films:

1. Steven Spielberg (Bridge of Spies)
2. George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road)
3. Ridley Scott (The Martian)
4. Todd Haynes (Carol)
5. Alejandro G. Inarritu (The Revenant)

Upsets: Tom McCarthy (Spotlight); Adam McKay (The Big Short)

What do you think? We shall see very soon, and do not forget about the Oscars nominations on Thursday!!

filmAEO

73rd Golden Globes Predictions

                                                                                       Courtesy of NBC New York

The Intense Weeks of January: Nominations

Every year this time, Oscars consultants representing their films will be working their brains off if there are game changers or how to keep up the film's momentum in order to get attention from voters. This really requires a lot of tactical lobbying skills, yet keeping up with what is happening around the circle.

Reviewing this week or so, nominations from ACE Eddie Award surrounding best edited films, WGA Awards on best screenplays of the year and finally the BAFTA which was just announced fresh. BAFTA would be a close indicator to the Oscars as the voting periods are closer. Therefore, considering the different times of voting, one would expect the results for Golden Globes over this weekend might be different from the BAFTA and the Oscars which will be presented in a month's time. We should dig deeper into BAFTA later, but before next Thursday when the 88th Oscars nominees will be announced.

If we want something meaningful and solid to our Golden Globes predictions, we have results from the New York Films Critics Circle (NYFCC). They have awarded Carol Best Picture and Mark Rylance Best Supporting Actor for his performance in Bridge of Spies. These two wins are good indicators to the Golden Globes, or even the Oscars nominations. The other wins among NYFCC awards do not reflect much on the Oscars as of this stage, mainly because the winners are categorised and submitted differently in the Oscars process. So, let us focus on these two solid links and in general the 73rd Golden Globes predictions first.

                                                     Mark Rylance and Tom Hanks in Bridge of Spies

Decoding the identity of the Golden Globes

Before we get into the wordy analysis, let us talk about numbers first which we often ignore when judgement becomes subjective. Here is an interesting fact raised by StudySoup. They have found that the alumni of New York University (NYU) obtained the most Golden Globes wins in the past, and 5 alumni are nominated again this year, notably Lady Gaga and Felicity Huffman to be competing for Best Performance by an Actress in a Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television. If you would love to learn more about their findings, please follow the link below.

                                                            Lady Gaga in American Horror Story: Hotel

You might not see the obvious of ranking these top schools of the US and mistook it as chance to be proud of your alma matar if you went to any of them. (Unfortunately, never had a chance to study in the US, would have been really cool!) The obvious lies in whether voters of the Globes or even other awards have gone to any of these colleges. Yes, I am referring to passionate votes here. This alma matar effect could be a factor on mainly the TV categories as seen from StudySoup. But what exactly do we know about these voters? Would they even know some nominees have attended their alma matar?

The Golden Globes is composed of members from the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA). The voting is performed by approximately 90 members who are international journalists based in Southern California. However, how large could 90 voters be when compared with the total of more than 7000 members from the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (Oscars)? Would the Golden Globes results really mean that much from journalists instead of accomplished filmmakers and film professionals? The fact is sometimes the Globes deviate from the Oscars results, so it may not be that accurate at all times. Since the pictures and acting categories split up in the Globes, let us throw you the statistics of Golden Globe winning directors from the 1980s who went on winning the Oscars by year:

Year	Golden Globes	Oscars	Succeeded (Y/N)
1980	Robert Redford (Ordinary People)	Robert Redford (Ordinary People)	Y
1981	Warren Beatty (Reds)	Warren Beatty (Reds)	Y
1982	Richard Attenborough (Gandhi)	Richard Attenborough (Gandhi)	Y
1983	Barbra Streisand (Yentl)	James L. Brooks (Terms of Endearment)	N
1984	Milos Forman (Amadeus)	Milos Forman (Amadeus)	Y
1985	John Huston (Prizzi's Honour)	Sydney Pollack (Out of Africa)	N
1986	Oliver Stone (Platoon)	Oliver Stone (Platoon)	Y
1987	Bernardo Bertolucci (The Last Emperor)	Bernardo Bertolucci (The Last Emperor)	Y
1988	Clint Eastwood (Bird)	Barry Levinson (Rain Man)	N
1989	Oliver Stone (Born On The Fourth Of July)	Oliver Stone (Born On The Fourth Of July)	Y
1990	Kevin Costner (Dances With Wolves)	Kevin Costner (Dances With Wolves)	Y
1991	Oliver Stone (JFK)	Jonathan Demme (The Silence of the Lambs)	N
1992	Clint Eastwood (Unforgiven)	Clint Eastwood (Unforgiven)	Y
1993	Steven Spielberg (Schindler's List)	Steven Spielberg (Schindler's List)	Y
1994	Robert Zemeckis (Forrest Gump)	Robert Zemeckis (Forrest Gump)	Y
1995	Mel Gibson (Braveheart)	Mel Gibson (Braveheart)	Y
1996	Milos Forman (The People vs. Larry Flynt)	Anthony Minghella (The English Patient)	N
1997	James Cameron (Titanic)	James Cameron (Titanic)	Y
1998	Steven Spielberg (Saving Private Ryan)	Steven Spielberg (Saving Private Ryan)	Y
1999	Sam Mendes (American Beauty)	Sam Mendes (American Beauty)	Y
2000	Ang Lee (Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon)	Steven Soderbergh (Traffic)	N
2001	Robert Altman (Gosford Park)	Ron Howard (A Beautiful Mind)	N
2002	Martin Scorsese (Gangs of New York)	Roman Polanski (The Pianist)	N
2003	Peter Jackson (The Return of the King)	Peter Jackson (The Return of the King)	Y
2004	Clint Eastwood (Million Dollar Baby)	Clint Eastwood (Million Dollar Baby)	Y
2005	Ang Lee (Brokeback Mountain)	Ang Lee (Brokeback Mountain)	Y
2006	Martin Scorsese (The Departed)	Martin Scorsese (The Departed)	Y
2007	Julian Schnabel (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly)	Joel & Ethan Coen (No Country for Old Men)	N
2008	Danny Boyle (Slumdog Millionaire)	Danny Boyle (Slumdog Millionaire)	Y
2009	James Cameron (Avatar)	Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker)	N
2010	David Fincher (The Social Network)	Tom Hooper (The King's Speech)	N
2011	Martin Scorsese (Hugo)	Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist)	N
2012	Ben Affleck (Argo)	Ang Lee (Life of Pi)	N
2013	Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity)	Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity)	Y
2014	Richard Linklater (Boyhood)	Alejandro G. Inarritu (Birdman)	N

From the results for 35 years above, there were 14 times when Globe winner did not go on winning the Oscars. The unsuccessful rate of winning the Oscars is 40%. The deviations in Director race or even other categories arise from two sources. Firstly, the schedule of the Globes is normally held a month before the Oscars. Secondly, the Globes vie for popularity votes and celebrities rather than taking the Oscar approach on art and influence. Globe tends to honour celebrity contribution and influence, as seen in 2009 from the Directors table above when blockbuster Avatar directed by popularly praised James Cameron faces off with indie film The Hurt Locker. The Globes will be a night of movie and TV stars together!  

On the flip side of the token, we should not underestimate Spotlight this year, as it is a film on the dedication and bravery of journalists to challenge the truth. The Globes would definitely crown this film, and possibly the Academy members too because the film has been gaining momentum throughout these weeks. In conclusion, many factors can validate the unsuccessful rate of 40%, including passionate factors for their alumni, schedule of Globes to the Oscars and most importantly what the cohort of voters were thinking as of that moment. Let us wait and see the results then.

Courtesy of StudySoup and their findings. Check them out:

http://goo.gl/RZtvbJ

filmAEO predictions to the 73rd Golden Globes

The Globes will take place this Sunday, January 10, hosted by Ricky Gervais. Time is running out, so here is what filmAEO thinks and predicts ob the film categories...

Motion Picture, Drama

Prediction: Spotlight

Motion Picture, Comedy

Prediction: The Martian

Director

Prediction: Ridley Scott (The Martian)

Actor, Drama

Prediction: Leonardo diCaprio (The Revenant)

Actor, Comedy/Musical

Prediction: Matt Damon (The Martian)

Actress, Drama

Prediction: Brie Larson (Room)

Actress, Comedy/Musical

Prediction: Amy Schumer (Trainwreck)

Supporting Actor

Prediction: Sylvester Stallone (Creed)

Supporting Actress

Prediction: Jennifer Jason Leigh (The Hateful Eight)

Screenplay

Prediction: Spotlight

Animated Feature

Prediction: Inside Out

Foreign Language Film

Prediction: Son of Saul 

Original Score

Prediction: Ennio Morricone (The Hateful Eight)

Original Song

Prediction: See You Again (Furious 7)



filmAEO

Top 10 films of 2015: A quick look back before the 88th Oscars

Never have I thought it has been nearly a year since I last post. For those who have missed my analysis and long-winded theories, welcome back to the race again with an outlook to 88th Oscars. The 88th Oscars will honour the best films of 2015, and the nominations will be out very soon (14th January, 2016). Before we proceed with the coming discussion about the race this year, let us embrace the moment of looking back to the top 10 films of 2015 in NO preferential order. If you do not trust me, at least believe in the convincing eyes and gesture of Tom Hardy and Charlize Theron in the wild, dusty psuedo-imaginary desert land from Mad Max: Fury Road.

2015 Top 10 Look Back (in NO preferential order):

1. The Martian
2. Steve Jobs
3. Wild Tales
4. Mad Max: Fury Road
5. Inside Out
6. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
7. Bridge of Spies
8. The Hateful Eight
9. The Big Short
10. Spotlight

The reason for putting the list in no particular order because 2015 has been a tricky year for the movie industry. Firstly, emerging online TV platforms and boom in productions of quality TV series have introduced a transition and migration of Hollywood actors, directors and writers to the TV business. Secondly, the already announced nominees for Golden Globes, Screen Actors Guild (SAG) and Critics' Choice display uncertainty and mixed reviews. Particularly, the race of Best Picture, Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress is murky. As a result, when one makes a top 10, you start comparing first with TV stories as well, and then looking into patterns of the race so far.

When it comes to judging the good and bad elements of a film, great films of 2015 can be flawed with loopholes and cliche. For example, Star Wars: The Force Awakens really impressed and makes you think what will happen, but it referenced many ideas of A New Hope to the point that the story is predictable. Do not get me wrong, I am a huge Star Wars fan and I totally loved J. J. Abrams' work, but I thought some moments could have been filmed better. Unlike films of 2014, you see Birdman or Boyhood were nearly flawless in their own ways.

Inside Out is close to perfection due to its originality of ideas that stitch to our minds. Problem with it is once again it is a Pixar animated feature. Then, you 'disgust' yourself to compare it with other Pixar films, even though you 'joy' for its very likely Best Animated Feature win.

I sound confused, so as my mind, because it is difficult to pick top 10 in a justified order. Do not forget we also have other notable films that filmAEO has viewed in the following:

- Ex-Machina
- Kingsman: The Secret Service
- The Revenant
- Youth
- 99 Homes
- Ant-Man
- Spy
- Trainwreck
- Macbeth
- The Walk
- Creed

What's more? Some films are scheduled for showings in 2016, but we see they have been picking up good reviews in US recently. They could have been potentially placed either at top 10 or the notable films. Here you go:

- The Assassin
- Sicario
- Straight Outta Compton
- Joy
- Me and Earl and the Dying Girl
- Room
- Brooklyn
- Carol
- The Danish Girl
- Anomalisa
- 45 Years
- Son of Saul

If you get a chance to see all these great films of 2015, good for you! So, stay tuned for the upcoming analysis for 88th Oscars. Wish you all a prosperous year ahead and keep loving films and filmAEO as usual, even the TV side can be really tempting to watch sometimes. May the films be with us, as Quentin Tarantino shot The Hateful Eight in original and glorious 70mm film. Retro and Respect!

filmAEO