filmAEO: 73rd Golden Globes Predictions

Courtesy of NBC New York

The Intense Weeks of January: Nominations

Every year this time, Oscars consultants representing their films will be working their brains off if there are game changers or how to keep up the film's momentum in order to get attention from voters. This really requires a lot of tactical lobbying skills, yet keeping up with what is happening around the circle.

Reviewing this week or so, nominations from ACE Eddie Award surrounding best edited films, WGA Awards on best screenplays of the year and finally the BAFTA which was just announced fresh. BAFTA would be a close indicator to the Oscars as the voting periods are closer. Therefore, considering the different times of voting, one would expect the results for Golden Globes over this weekend might be different from the BAFTA and the Oscars which will be presented in a month's time. We should dig deeper into BAFTA later, but before next Thursday when the 88th Oscars nominees will be announced.

If we want something meaningful and solid to our Golden Globes predictions, we have results from the New York Films Critics Circle (NYFCC). They have awarded Carol Best Picture and Mark Rylance Best Supporting Actor for his performance in Bridge of Spies. These two wins are good indicators to the Golden Globes, or even the Oscars nominations. The other wins among NYFCC awards do not reflect much on the Oscars as of this stage, mainly because the winners are categorised and submitted differently in the Oscars process. So, let us focus on these two solid links and in general the 73rd Golden Globes predictions first.

Mark Rylance and Tom Hanks in Bridge of Spies

Decoding the identity of the Golden Globes

Before we get into the wordy analysis, let us talk about numbers first which we often ignore when judgement becomes subjective. Here is an interesting fact raised by StudySoup. They have found that the alumni of New York University (NYU) obtained the most Golden Globes wins in the past, and 5 alumni are nominated again this year, notably Lady Gaga and Felicity Huffman to be competing for Best Performance by an Actress in a Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television. If you would love to learn more about their findings, please follow the link below.

Lady Gaga in American Horror Story: Hotel

You might not see the obvious of ranking these top schools of the US and mistook it as chance to be proud of your alma matar if you went to any of them. (Unfortunately, never had a chance to study in the US, would have been really cool!) The obvious lies in whether voters of the Globes or even other awards have gone to any of these colleges. Yes, I am referring to passionate votes here. This alma matar effect could be a factor on mainly the TV categories as seen from StudySoup. But what exactly do we know about these voters? Would they even know some nominees have attended their alma matar?

The Golden Globes is composed of members from the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA). The voting is performed by approximately 90 members who are international journalists based in Southern California. However, how large could 90 voters be when compared with the total of more than 7000 members from the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (Oscars)? Would the Golden Globes results really mean that much from journalists instead of accomplished filmmakers and film professionals? The fact is sometimes the Globes deviate from the Oscars results, so it may not be that accurate at all times. Since the pictures and acting categories split up in the Globes, let us throw you the statistics of Golden Globe winning directors from the 1980s who went on winning the Oscars by year:

Year	Golden Globes	Oscars	Succeeded (Y/N)
1980	Robert Redford (Ordinary People)	Robert Redford (Ordinary People)	Y
1981	Warren Beatty (Reds)	Warren Beatty (Reds)	Y
1982	Richard Attenborough (Gandhi)	Richard Attenborough (Gandhi)	Y
1983	Barbra Streisand (Yentl)	James L. Brooks (Terms of Endearment)	N
1984	Milos Forman (Amadeus)	Milos Forman (Amadeus)	Y
1985	John Huston (Prizzi's Honour)	Sydney Pollack (Out of Africa)	N
1986	Oliver Stone (Platoon)	Oliver Stone (Platoon)	Y
1987	Bernardo Bertolucci (The Last Emperor)	Bernardo Bertolucci (The Last Emperor)	Y
1988	Clint Eastwood (Bird)	Barry Levinson (Rain Man)	N
1989	Oliver Stone (Born On The Fourth Of July)	Oliver Stone (Born On The Fourth Of July)	Y
1990	Kevin Costner (Dances With Wolves)	Kevin Costner (Dances With Wolves)	Y
1991	Oliver Stone (JFK)	Jonathan Demme (The Silence of the Lambs)	N
1992	Clint Eastwood (Unforgiven)	Clint Eastwood (Unforgiven)	Y
1993	Steven Spielberg (Schindler's List)	Steven Spielberg (Schindler's List)	Y
1994	Robert Zemeckis (Forrest Gump)	Robert Zemeckis (Forrest Gump)	Y
1995	Mel Gibson (Braveheart)	Mel Gibson (Braveheart)	Y
1996	Milos Forman (The People vs. Larry Flynt)	Anthony Minghella (The English Patient)	N
1997	James Cameron (Titanic)	James Cameron (Titanic)	Y
1998	Steven Spielberg (Saving Private Ryan)	Steven Spielberg (Saving Private Ryan)	Y
1999	Sam Mendes (American Beauty)	Sam Mendes (American Beauty)	Y
2000	Ang Lee (Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon)	Steven Soderbergh (Traffic)	N
2001	Robert Altman (Gosford Park)	Ron Howard (A Beautiful Mind)	N
2002	Martin Scorsese (Gangs of New York)	Roman Polanski (The Pianist)	N
2003	Peter Jackson (The Return of the King)	Peter Jackson (The Return of the King)	Y
2004	Clint Eastwood (Million Dollar Baby)	Clint Eastwood (Million Dollar Baby)	Y
2005	Ang Lee (Brokeback Mountain)	Ang Lee (Brokeback Mountain)	Y
2006	Martin Scorsese (The Departed)	Martin Scorsese (The Departed)	Y
2007	Julian Schnabel (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly)	Joel & Ethan Coen (No Country for Old Men)	N
2008	Danny Boyle (Slumdog Millionaire)	Danny Boyle (Slumdog Millionaire)	Y
2009	James Cameron (Avatar)	Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker)	N
2010	David Fincher (The Social Network)	Tom Hooper (The King's Speech)	N
2011	Martin Scorsese (Hugo)	Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist)	N
2012	Ben Affleck (Argo)	Ang Lee (Life of Pi)	N
2013	Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity)	Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity)	Y
2014	Richard Linklater (Boyhood)	Alejandro G. Inarritu (Birdman)	N

From the results for 35 years above, there were 14 times when Globe winner did not go on winning the Oscars. The unsuccessful rate of winning the Oscars is 40%. The deviations in Director race or even other categories arise from two sources. Firstly, the schedule of the Globes is normally held a month before the Oscars. Secondly, the Globes vie for popularity votes and celebrities rather than taking the Oscar approach on art and influence. Globe tends to honour celebrity contribution and influence, as seen in 2009 from the Directors table above when blockbuster Avatar directed by popularly praised James Cameron faces off with indie film The Hurt Locker. The Globes will be a night of movie and TV stars together!

On the flip side of the token, we should not underestimate Spotlight this year, as it is a film on the dedication and bravery of journalists to challenge the truth. The Globes would definitely crown this film, and possibly the Academy members too because the film has been gaining momentum throughout these weeks. In conclusion, many factors can validate the unsuccessful rate of 40%, including passionate factors for their alumni, schedule of Globes to the Oscars and most importantly what the cohort of voters were thinking as of that moment. Let us wait and see the results then.

Courtesy of StudySoup and their findings. Check them out:

http://goo.gl/RZtvbJ

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